(WASHINGTON) — All eyes will be on the key swing states as votes are counted in the match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Both candidates have crisscrossed the seven key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and worked to appeal to undecided voters and connect with them over the issues that resonate most with them.
While voters in these battleground states share the same concerns as the rest of Americans, there are some issues that stand out as top concerns for their residents — with the economy reigning supreme as a key voter issue with just days left until Election Day.
It’s the economy
“The No. 1 issue is the same as it always is, which is, it’s the economy. And of course, the economy has multiple dimensions to it. We have the growth rate, we have unemployment, we have consumer confidence, and, of course, inflation,” said Todd Belt, director of George Washington University’s Political Management program.
When it comes to the economy, 44% percent of Americans say they’re not as well off now as they were when President Joe Biden took office, tying the most negative number on this question in data since 1986, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Further, while inflation has eased and employment is strong, those gains haven’t hit home for most people: 59% say the economy is getting worse, more than twice as many as say it’s getting better (23%). And among registered voters who say the economy’s worsening, Trump leads Harris by a sweeping 53 points, 74-21%.
A 538 analysis of polls found that virtually all of the swing states have ranked the economy as a top voter issue — some for varying reasons. Still, Belt said the economy is “the No. 1 issue everywhere you go.”
In Nevada, its economy, to a unique degree, depends on the hospitality industry — making the economy a top issue for voters in that state. Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, makes up about 75% of the state’s population — and a significant number of hospitality workers. Likely because of these factors, Nevada voters ranked the economy as the most important issue facing their state, according to poll analysis from 538.
Home prices, fracking, immigration
Housing affordability is another top issue for voters in swing states such as Nevada and North Carolina, where home prices have surged.
The median home price in North Carolina grew from $193,200 in the 2017-19 survey to $280,600 in the 2020-22 survey, the seventh-largest increase in the nation in percentage terms, according to the American Community Survey. And in Nevada, the Home Value Index has grown 34 percent since the start of the Biden presidency, slightly faster than the rate of increase nationwide, according to Zillow.
The cost of groceries, gasoline and housing resonates with voters across several swing states, Belt added.
“The issue of the economy, of course, has to do with the affordability of living. This is what we call, you know, our kitchen table, pocketbook issue,” Belt said. “It has to do deal with groceries, with gasoline. And, of course, what’s been people commenting about most of all is housing costs as well.”
In battleground Pennsylvania, fracking is a big local issue and has ties to both the economy and the environment.
Immigration is another key issue for many swing-state voters — especially those in the Sun Belt. Arizona, a border state, has been a regular campaign stop for Trump and Harris, who have often discussed immigration while there. It’s also top of mind for voters in Nevada — a state where Hispanic and Latinos are the largest minority group with 28% of its population.
“People do have [immigration] on their minds because it has been pushed as a big issue in the media,” Belt said.
Trump has used immigration to hit Harris’ immigration policies, putting the blame squarely on her for the situation at the border as he latches on to his inaccurate reference to her as the “border czar.”
Immigration is often tied to other key issues such as crime, Belt noted — a tactic Trump has employed on the campaign trail.
Despite the fact that U.S. citizens commit crimes at higher rates than undocumented immigrants, Trump painted them as “criminals” who will “cut your throat” at a campaign stop in Wisconsin in September. Also, while in Tempe, Arizona, last week, Trump criticized the Biden-Harris administration for its handling of the border, calling the United States a “garbage can for the world.”
Abortion
Abortion is a key voter issue after the Supreme Court in 2022 overruled Roe vs. Wade, which secured the constitutional right to abortion. The Supreme Court decision, which Trump often brags about his role in, is an issue that Democrats have seized on this cycle.
“The Democrats believe that this is the kryptonite for the Republicans in the last couple of elections,” Belt said.
Abortion remains a rallying issue among Democrats who were able to stave off a “red wave” during the 2022 midterms by centering their messages around it. Harris’ campaign claims reproductive freedom is still one of the top issues among undecided voters.
Several states, including battlegrounds Arizona and Nevada, have ballot measures that would amend their state constitutions with specific language to protect or recognize the right to an abortion for all constituents.
Polls show abortion is a more important issue in Wisconsin than it is nationally, according to poll analysis by 538. The legal status of abortion was hotly contested in the state after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, leading to a 15-month period in which no legal abortions were performed in the state under an 1849 law that criminalized abortion.
Even with other issues on swing states’ radar, Belt noted that both Harris and Trump work to tie messaging back to the economy.
“You’ll see candidates like Donald Trump talk about how immigration is impacting the economy and jobs,” he said. “And so there are these auxiliary issues that they’re trying to push, but they also tie them to the economy, because they know that’s what voters care about the most.”
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